Argument147

147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
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The editorial is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. Despite the decrease of the sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years, the editorial concludes that the sales will increase. To justify this conclusion, the editorial's author cites a recent survey in which videogame players indicated a preference for games with lifelike graphics requiring up-to-date computers. The editorial then points out that Whirlwind has introduced several such games along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old-the demographic group most likely to play video games. I find this argument specious on several grounds.To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful, lacking informatin about the number of players surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access the validity of the results. For example, if 200 players were surveyed but only 2 responded, the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. It is also possible that the decline was due to factors such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management. Since the author has not dearly identified the cause of the decline, I cannot be conviced that Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse that decline at all-let alone dramatically.Secondly, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if most players do prefer games providing lifelike graphics, it does not follow that they will buy such games produced by Whirlwind. It is highly possible that they just like the videos, but can't afford it becauce of its high price, or they already have some of such games so there is no need to buy any games in the near future. And perhaps Whirlwind's competitors are now introducing similar games at lower prices or with features that render them more attractive to videogame players than Whirlwind's new game. And even if they want to buy Whirlwind's item, and can afford to pay the games, it doesn't mean that they have the most up-to-date computers which such games require. Without ruling out these and other possible factors, the author cannot confidently conclude his results.Finally, there is no evidence that since the Whirlwind has just introduced several games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, there sales will increase dramatically in the next few months. How many of these people 10 to 25 years old indicated will buy the game with lifelike graphics, especially those produced by Whirlwind? What is the percentage? The author does not provide any solid information about this point, I simply cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales.From what have been discussed above, I believe the author can not make any prediction. To strengthen the analysis, the author should give out more details about why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined, and whether Whirlwind's new strategy eliminates that cause. In additin, the author should make sure the target customers will surely buy their products, thus leading to the increase of the sales.