Argument38

38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
(441 words)
In this argument, the author comes to the conclusion that the West Meria(WM) Pubic Heaoth Council should recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To jusdify to recommendation, the author poinst out that the colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work. He also cites a survey which shows that the fish consumption has something to do with the frequency people visit the doctor for the treatment of colds. However, this argument is flawed in several respects.
Firstly, the fact that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds doesn't definitely mean the rate of citizens who catch cold is low. It is highly possible that those people who catch colds in East Meria(EM) just buy some medicine from the shop and don't go to the hospital, or they visiting the doctor for the treatment of other disease which are caused by colds, which means that the doctor wouldn't take such disease as "colds", while actually these are cold in the begin. Thus, without ruling out these and other possible reason, the author can't convince me that the frequency of people who catch cold is low in EM.
Secondly, even if the rate of people who catch colds is low in EM, there is no evidence that this is due to the high fish comsumption. Noboby can make it sure that there is any cause-and-effect relationship between two phenomenon just because they happen during the same time. Maybe the people in EM have a better health than WM, or the climate of EM is warmer. Unless the author can cites some scienfic data to assure their relationship, any conclusion based on this assumption is unreliable.
Finally, even if the fish conssumption can help people preventing the cold, no evidence shows that the Ichthaid(Ic) can also operate the same function. Since the Ic is a nutritioanl supplement derived from fish oil, we may wonder whether the effective parts which can prevent the colds disappear, as we don't know whether the reaction to cold by fish is due to Ic or not. Without explaining these qusetions, the author can't come to any convincing recommendation.
In sum, to convince me that it is suitable to recommend the daily use of Ic, the author should prove that the fish can help people decrease the frequency of cold, and make sure that any other factors that can affect the cold are the same between EM and WM. In addition, the author must show evidence that the Ic which is nutritional suppenlement can also be helpful.